Ontario votes in three by-elections on September 3: Scarborough Southwest, Hamilton East—Stoney Creek, and York—Simcoe.
The outcome won’t threaten Ford’s majority, but the campaign will test whether the Liberals or NDP can consolidate the anti-Ford vote, now amid reports that the Ontario PCs paid to surveil former Ontario Liberal leader Bonnie Crombie while she was vacationing in Jamaica.
Hamilton East—Stoney Creek: Competitive, with the Liberals favoured. Vote-Scope projects the Liberals at 40%, PCs at 33%, and NDP at 20%. Formerly an NDP stronghold before flipping PC in 2022, it is the clearest opportunity for an opposition party to take a seat from the PCs.
Scarborough Southwest: A Liberal opportunity in an NDP-held seat. A February Mainstreet poll found the Liberals at 43%, PCs at 29%, and NDP at 19%, with 22% undecided. The NDP won the seat with 43% in 2025 and has held it since 2018.
York—Simcoe: The safest PC seat of the three. The PCs won 59% in 2025 and have won every provincial election here since the riding was created in 2007. A loss would be a major upset.
Timeline
Writs were issued on August 5. Advance voting runs August 26–28; election-day polls are open 9 a.m. to 9 p.m.
After official results are released, district winners will appear on the map. On election night, the Dashboard countdown becomes a live-results indicator.
How to follow along
Official voting information: Elections Ontario
Writ announcement: Ontario Newsroom